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The Laboratory and Department of Operations Research and Decision Systems, Computer and Automation Institute, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the Department of Decisions in Economics run together with the Corvinus University, Budapest, have been dealing with decision systems and decision support for a long time. Besides research, teaching and the development of decision support systems (e.g. WINGDSS), we have solved several practical tasks and completed numerous environmental impact assessments. The transmission of pollutants in the air, rivers and the ground water was examined by modelling based on the prevailing stipulations in the Hungarian Standards, by the software-system we developed. 1. THE SOLVING OF DECISION PROBLEMS During the past years the projects in which we used decision support systems are as follows:
Since 1997, informatics tools worth of 4-5 thousand million HUF (approximately 20-30 million USD) per year have been purchased within the frame of the contracts yielded by the tenders. Upon the order of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, in 1999 we completed the Examination of the efficiency of the Tender for Developing the Economy (1999); Evaluation of the Programme for the Development of the Industrial Park (1999). The evaluation was made on the tender and fact data of years 1996, 1997, 1998. For the evaluation the database of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, containing the tender and fact data, was made available. Stating the evaluation problem as a multi-attribute group decision problem, we used software WINGDSS 4.1 developed at the Laboratory of Operations Research and Decision Systems, Computer and Automation Institute, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, to solve it. The solution of the problem – in alignment with the EU evaluation principles, expressible numerically too – showed to the main division of the ministry, charged with the Purpose Trend of Developing the Economy how consistent the results of subsidy from the budget for about 170 candidates during the period of 1996-1998 were with the economy-policy aims. 2. THE COMMON EXAMINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND DECISION PROBLEMS Our Department has been dealing with decision support systems and environmental modelling for a long time. Upon the order of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Pest County, we elaborated a new methodology and software-system for the Computer modelling of the water supply system of the river branch of the Danube at Ráckeve-Soroksár, by using multi-attribute decision methods (1998). The Decision-supporting case-study as regard to an investment concerning the storing of communal waste material for „Kertváros” South-Eastern Agglomeration Regional Territory Improvement Association (1997) was completed for .A.S.A. Environment Protection and Waste Material Management Hungary Limited. According to the conclusion in the study, the communal waste-material storing of the area for a long-run, would be solved exclusively by a regional waste-material unloading area. In the study, from among 3 possible sites, we proposed one, by using the decision methodology we have developed. That is the site where the investment is in operation. 3. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT From among our environmental impact assessments, we highlight on
Upon the order of the BHG, in 1998, as the main contractor, we completed a common environmental impact assessment for a building-complex to be estabilished on the site of MOM-park (offices, multi-function super-market, hotel, flats and underground garages). In course of the multifold analysis special attention had to be paid that during the building process and also the operation, the interests of the inhabitants nearby should be safeguarded. Limit values for air and ground water as environmental load had to be observed. b) Regional waste-material depositories After the above job we signed a contract as the main
coordinator for the Environmental impact assessment for building a regional
waste-material depository in the vicinity of Gyál, in 1998. Based on
this study, the firm .A.S.A. got the permit for building the depository
which was built then and now it is in operation. The model for ground water
transmission described in the study and the software elaborated for solving
the problem were prepared for elaborating the mishap-plan of the depository.
c) Waste-water sludge composting plant at Dunaharaszti This study was prepared for the Public Services Office Ltd. at Dunaharaszti, in 1999. The composting plant to be built would serve for composting the waste-water sludge developed on the site of the cleaning plant of the town. In the interest of securing the Danube-Tisza channel situated from the plant for 125 meters, the safe operation of the composting plant was an especially important criteria, in course of the evaluation. The transmission model for ground water pollution used in the case of waste-material depositories and the upgraded version of the software were applied, since, due to the vicinity of the Danube-Tisza channel, the original model cannot be applied for this case. We prepared the Environmental impact assessment for a golf-course of Budapest Golf and Country Club upon the order of the Municipality of Göd (1998). In the study we dealt with the possible environmental impact of the golf-course planned to be established on the area between Göd and Fót. Besides, we elaborated a professional guarantee-system that guarantees the prevention of the protected flora on the area, mainly the loams. The environmental impact assessment was ordered by the Mayor's Office of Komló and the study was prepared by the assistance of the HAF Rt., with the title of Comprehensive environmental impact assessment for the planned waste battery recycling factory at mine Béta, Komló (1999). In this study we examined the effect of the emitted pollutants, the possible air-quality and the sphere of effect. This was done based on the stipulations of the Hungarian Standards and by the help of the software-system in our development. In the Survey and evaluation of the environment regarding the bed and flood area of the brook Rákos (1997) we analyzed and evaluated the brook Rákos starting at the hill Margita near Gödöllő, and its environment (above Gödöllő, Isaszeg, Pécel, Budapest) furthermore its watershed area, its data regarding the quality of the water etc. The actual hydrological conditions and the control of the hydrological effect of a revitalization plan were included in the project. 4. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS We model the transmission of pollutants in the air, based on the Hungarian Standards. The modelling is performed regarding the emission by point-sources (stacks), linear sources and surface sources, by the help of ATP software we have developed. In modelling the common effect of several polluting sources can be examined. Calculation can be done for continuous and instantaneous emissions, as well as for short and long averaging time. Differences in the level of the surface can be considered, by the help of digital relief maps. The numerical results are in text files and for visualization image files are used. Digital maps represent the results in the form of smoke-tails or isoconcentration zones. On the smoke-tail vertical cross sections can be generated, as well. The sphere of effect is specified by taking several criteria-systems into consideration. Transmission modelling case-studies elaborated recently:
The above case-study was completed upon the order of Dunamenti Power Station. The transmission of the pollutants emitted by the Power Station, with regards to a common emission of several point-sources was examined. Since considerable technological development – environmental-friendly from the point of view of air-quality – is planned at the Power Station, in the interest of demonstrating the expectable positive effect of the investment, above the emission data of the technology in operation, calculations were done regarding the emission values to be expected as the result of the development.
The characteristics of water quality means the sorts of pollutants (e.g. cyanide) and their concentration in the water. Their transmission modelling is the calculation or estimation of their future position. The most important processes which we consider in the models are dilutedness, biological boost and precipitation.
Decision methods applied for an environmental problem are described for modelling the water quality of a branch of the Danube, south of Budapest (Ráckeve-Soroksár branch). The applied decision technics consist of the following steps: modelling of pollution transport and other dynamic processes, identification of control points, plans and possible measures, creation and solution of models, visualization of the results etc. The damage of the water-proofing system in a waste material depository or sewage sludge composting plant, the penetration of pollutants into the soil and ground water may cause an environmental mishap. Although the standard water-proofing technologies are extremely safe, one may not disregard possible malfunctions. For a well-established plan of managing unexpected events, the impact of damage must be forecasted. By the help of models described in the relevant literature, we propound the basic ideas used in the simulations for two planned regional waste-material depositories (around Apc and Taksony) a sewage sludge composting plant (at Dunaharaszti) and an active aluminium dross depository of a foundry (around Apc). |
